ArcelorMittal (MT) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY 2025 EBITDA reached $6.5bn, supported by $0.7bn from strategic growth projects, with adjusted net income of $2.9bn and net income of $3.2bn, reflecting resilient performance despite market headwinds and a 1.7% sales decline.

• Strategic focus on renewables, electrification, and decarbonization, with portfolio optimization and major investments driving structurally higher margins and improved returns.

• Safety performance improved, with a three-year transformation program and LTIF rate down to 0.65x.

• Share buybacks reduced fully diluted share count by 38% since September 2020, supporting shareholder value.

• Board proposes to increase annual base dividend to $0.60/sh in FY 2026, doubling over five years.

Financial highlights

• FY 2025 EBITDA was $6.5bn ($121/t), more than double previous cycle lows, with adjusted net income of $2.9bn and adjusted EPS of $3.85.

• Sales for 2025 were $61.4bn, down 1.7% year-over-year, mainly due to a 2.3% drop in average steel selling prices.

• Operating income rose 9.6% to $3.6bn, driven by $1.0bn in exceptional items and impairments.

• Free cash flow for 2025 was $0.4bn, with net cash from operations at $4.8bn and capex at $4.3bn.

• Net debt at year-end was $7.9bn, with total liquidity of $11.0bn and average debt maturity of 7.7 years.

Outlook and guidance

• Apparent steel demand (ex-China) is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, with higher production and shipments forecast across all regions.

• Capex for 2026 projected at $4.5–$5.0bn, focused on energy transition, infrastructure, and mobility.

• Recently completed and ongoing projects expected to add $1.6bn in EBITDA potential ($0.7bn in 2026, $0.9bn from 2027 onward).

• Board proposes to increase annual base dividend to $0.60/sh in FY 2026, with at least 50% of post-dividend free cash flow to be returned via share buybacks.

• Positive outlook for European steel due to CBAM and TRQ, with higher domestic utilization and profitability expected.