BP (BP) Energy Outlook 2024 summary

Key themes and scenario overview

• Two main scenarios: Current Trajectory (based on existing policies and pledges) and Net Zero (aligned with Paris climate goals and IPCC scenarios for 1.5–2°C), illustrating possible energy system developments to 2050.

• Both scenarios are not predictions but frameworks to explore a range of possible energy futures, key trends, uncertainties, and inform resilient strategies.

• Net Zero requires accelerated decarbonization and policy tightening, while Current Trajectory is consistent with a >2.5°C rise and risks exceeding the 2°C carbon budget by the early 2040s.

• Delaying transition beyond the early 2030s may require costly, disruptive measures to stay within climate targets.

• Both scenarios highlight the shift from energy addition (growth in both fossil and low-carbon energy) to energy substitution (low-carbon energy growth outpaces demand, reducing fossil use).

Recent developments and emerging trends

• Carbon emissions have continued to rise, averaging 0.8% annual growth from 2019-2023, risking exhaustion of the 2°C carbon budget by the early 2040s.

• Energy security and affordability have gained prominence due to geopolitical disruptions, prompting increased government involvement and focus on domestic energy production.

• Investment in low carbon energy has surged, with wind and solar generation nearly doubling since 2019, but fossil fuel use also hit new highs in 2023.

• Electric vehicle sales and heat pump adoption have grown rapidly, especially in China, the EU, and the US.

• Growth in critical minerals investment is underway but must accelerate to support a rapid energy transition.

Common trends across scenarios

• Rapid growth in wind and solar drives electrification, with electricity's share of final energy demand rising to 35–50% by 2050.

• Oil demand declines in both scenarios, with the pace and extent varying; electrification of transport is a key driver.

• The energy mix is shifting: fossil fuel importance declines as wind, solar, and other low carbon sources expand.

• Energy demand growth is strongest in emerging economies, but efficiency improvements are critical to moderating overall consumption.

• Primary energy demand plateaus or declines after the mid-2030s, with renewables becoming the fastest-growing source.