BP (BP) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Underlying replacement cost profit for Q3 2024 was $2.3B, down from $2.8B in Q2, reflecting weaker refining margins and oil trading, partly offset by higher gas realizations and a 3% year-over-year increase in upstream production, with liquids up 5% and refining availability at 96%.

• Operating cash flow reached $6.8B, including a $1.4B working capital release, while net debt increased by $1.7B to $24.3B due to lower prices and delayed divestment receipts.

• Announced a $1.75B share buyback and maintained a dividend of 8¢ per share for Q3 2024, as part of a $3.5B commitment for H2 2024.

• Continued portfolio high-grading and divestment of non-core assets, including U.S. onshore wind and mature Trinidad fields, to reallocate capital to higher-return projects.

• Accelerated digital transformation through partnerships with Palantir and Infosys, and completed acquisitions of BP Bunge Bioenergia and Lightsource BP.

Financial highlights

• Group underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax was $5.2B, about $200M lower sequentially.

• IFRS headline profit was $200M after $1.2B in net adverse adjusting items, mainly impairments.

• Capital expenditure in Q3 2024 was $4.5B, mainly due to initial payments for German offshore wind projects; YTD 2024 capex totaled $12.5B.

• Operating cash flow in Q3 2024 was $6.8B; net debt at quarter-end was $24.3B.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was $9.7B; gearing at end-Q3 2024 was 23.3%.

Outlook and guidance

• Q4 2024 upstream production expected to be lower than Q3 2024; refining margins to remain low and sensitive to product cracks.

• Full-year 2024 upstream production expected slightly higher than 2023, with higher oil production & operations and lower gas & low carbon energy.

• Full-year capex guidance remains at ~$16B; divestment and other proceeds now expected to exceed $3B.

• Underlying effective tax rate for 2024 expected around 40%.

• Share buyback guidance of at least $14B through 2025 remains unchanged, with a further $1.75B buyback planned for Q4 2024.