BP (BP) Trading update summary

Market environment and financial impacts

• Heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas, and refined products prices in late Q1 2026 is expected to impact trading results and working capital movements, with increased dislocation between marker and realized prices and greater price lag effects.

• Brent crude averaged $81.13/bbl in Q1 2026, up from $63.73/bbl in Q4 2025; Henry Hub gas averaged $5.05/mmBtu, up from $3.55/mmBtu.

• Net debt is expected to rise to $25–27 billion at Q1 2026 end, compared to $22.2 billion at Q4 2025, mainly due to a significant working capital build of $4–7 billion driven by the price environment.

Segment performance and operational guidance

• Upstream production is expected to be broadly flat versus Q4 2025 (2,344 mboe/d), with gas & low carbon energy slightly higher and oil production & operations slightly lower.

• Gas & low carbon energy realizations are expected to be broadly flat, with average gas marketing and trading results.

• Oil production & operations realizations are expected to have a positive impact of $0.1–0.2 billion, with higher cash costs and flat DD&A charges.

• Customers & products segment expects seasonally lower volumes and retail fuels margins, offset by stronger midstream and exceptional oil trading results; refining margins are stronger by $0.1–0.2 billion.

Capital expenditure and tax

• Capital expenditure in Q1 2026 is expected to be broadly flat with Q4 2025 organic capex ($3.5 billion).

• The underlying effective tax rate for Q1 2026 is expected to be around 35%, reflecting higher results in products.