Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net income rose 62% sequentially to AR$13.6B in 2Q25, with ROE at 6% and NIM at 21%, driven by strong commercial lending and moderating retail origination.

• Loan book grew 14% QoQ and 71% YoY, led by 23% QoQ growth in corporate loans and 2% QoQ in retail loans; deposits up 6% QoQ and 42% YoY, with US$ deposits at record levels, up 16% QoQ and 154% YoY.

• Strategic initiatives in digital channels, remunerated accounts, and synergies with invertirOnline drove engagement, cross-sell, and deposit growth.

• Operating expenses declined 13% YoY, reflecting efficiency efforts.

• Macro environment marked by decelerating inflation, pre-electoral uncertainty, and restrictive monetary policy.

Financial highlights

• Net income for Q2 was AR$13.6B, up 62% QoQ, with ROE at 6% and NIM at 20.8%-21%.

• Net financial income rose 10%-11.5% from clients and 15% from market-related activities QoQ.

• Loan book up 14% QoQ, deposit base up 6% QoQ and 42% YoY; US$ deposits up 16% QoQ and 154% YoY.

• Loan loss provisions increased 32% sequentially, mainly due to retail loan growth and higher risk weighting.

• Efficiency ratio at 60.9% in 2Q25.

Outlook and guidance

• Real loan growth expected at 40%-50% for 2025, with a balanced retail/corporate mix, contingent on monetary policy and regulation.

• Deposit growth forecasted at 20%-30%, with further gains in US$ deposits.

• NPL ratio expected to stabilize between 3%-3.5%; net cost of risk at 5%-5.5%.

• NIM projected at 18%-20%, slightly below 2024 levels.

• Operating expenses projected to decline 5%-8% in real terms for 2025.

• ROE expected to improve to 5%-10% by year-end, with potential for 15%-20% in 2026.

• CET1 ratio to close the year between 12%-13%, with upside to 16.7% if Basel III rules are equalized.