Heineken (HEIA) Fireside Chat summary

Introduction and agenda

• Discussion focused on 2025 outlook, volume headwinds, cost productivity, portfolio strategy, and regional performance.

Current industry trends

• Consistency in guidance (4%-8% growth) reflects ongoing global volatility, with consumer sentiment in Europe and volatility in Africa as key factors.

• Technical factors like fewer selling days and holiday timing impact volumes across major markets including Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Europe, and Vietnam.

• On-trade recovery remains slow, with volumes in Europe still 5%-6% below 2019 levels, mainly due to fewer outlets post-COVID.

• Premiumization and pricing have been key, but there is a renewed focus on balancing volume and value growth.

Challenges and overcoming obstacles

• Macro risk management has become integral, with scenario planning and early identification of risks now embedded in planning.

• Currency devaluations and economic volatility in Africa have shifted focus to profitable volume growth above cost of capital.

• Market share recovery in Mexico post-Oxxo exclusivity is ongoing, with profitability prioritized over rapid share gains.

• In Brazil, letting go of low-margin economy segments is expected to bottom out soon, with growth driven by premium and upper mainstream segments.