Lam Research (LRCX) Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 summary

Strategic evolution and market positioning

• Etch and deposition intensity has driven significant growth, with addressable market per wafer doubling in key transitions like 3D NAND and expected to double again from 5nm to CFET in foundry and logic over the next several years.

• R&D investments have shifted the business from a memory-centric profile to a more balanced exposure, with foundry and logic now comprising 59% of equipment sales in 2025.

• Advanced packaging and architectural innovations such as gate-all-around and backside power are major growth drivers, contributing to a rising share of overall wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending.

• The company expects its share of WFE investment to rise from low 30s% in 2024 to high 30s% in the coming years, aiming to capture half of this expanding market.

• Expansion of manufacturing footprint, especially in Asia and Malaysia, supports global customer needs and cost efficiencies.

Financial outlook and operational execution

• WFE market is projected to grow from $110 billion in 2023 to $135 billion in 2024, with leading-edge foundry and DRAM as primary contributors.

• Gross margin is targeted to reach 50% by 2027-2028, supported by pricing discipline, internal efficiencies, and a close-to-customer manufacturing strategy.

• Revenue could potentially double from 2024 to 2027, requiring significant supply chain and internal manufacturing expansion.

• Customer Support Business Group (CSBG) is a key annuity-like revenue stream, expected to grow 1.5x by 2028, driven by an expanding installed base and advanced service offerings.

• Service revenue per tool is increasing, with a shift toward results-based contracts leveraging equipment intelligence and automation.

Technology leadership and market share

• Holds dominant market share in critical process steps for advanced packaging (TSV, HBM) and NAND (etch, metallization), with strong positions in DRAM and logic through tools like Akara and dry resist technology.

• Advanced packaging business, valued at $1 billion in 2024, is guided for 40%+ growth and is seen as a secular growth driver through 2028.

• DRAM SAM is expected to increase 1.7x, with Akara platform and dry resist ramping into production and contributing to market expansion.

• NAND upgrade TAM of $40 billion is being realized faster than anticipated due to higher-than-expected bit growth, with future investments expected to supplement capacity.

• Installed base has grown to 102,000 chambers, supporting recurring CSBG revenue and long-term profitability.