Moderna (MRNA) Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference summary

Financial and operational performance

• Achieved $1.9 billion in 2025 revenue, at the high end of guidance, driven by commercial execution.

• Reduced costs by $2 billion in 2025, doubling the initial $1 billion target, resulting in a cash balance of $8.1 billion, including $600 million from a new credit facility.

• Ex-U.S. revenue expected to rise from $700 million in 2025 to $1 billion in 2026, mainly from strategic partnerships with the U.K., Canada, and Australia.

• U.S. sales projected to decline by 20% in 2026, but overall revenue growth of up to 10% is guided, driven by international markets.

• Multi-year international contracts provide revenue visibility for several years.

Product approvals and pipeline progress

• mNEXSPIKE, a second COVID vaccine, approved and launched in 2025; COVID vaccine also approved for pediatric use (6 months to 5 years).

• RSV vaccine indication broadened for high-risk adults; positive phase III flu data led to regulatory filings in the U.S. and globally.

• Cancer pipeline advanced: phase III adjuvant melanoma study fully enrolled, as well as renal cell carcinoma and PA rare disease studies.

• Combination flu plus COVID vaccine received positive CHMP opinion in Europe; approval expected in 2026, with revenue contribution starting in 2027.

• U.S. flu vaccine filing accepted with PDUFA date in August 2026; combination vaccine awaiting further FDA guidance.

Growth drivers and market outlook

• Up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 underpinned by mNEXSPIKE U.S. market share (24% at end of 2025) and international partnerships.

• Ex-U.S. growth is key, as U.S. sales are expected to decline.

• Combination flu plus COVID vaccine seen as highly attractive for single-payer markets due to compliance and cost benefits; pricing strategy still under consideration.

• Europe respiratory vaccine market ($1.8 billion) opens in 2027 as competitor contracts lapse.

• New partnerships in Latin America and Asia-Pacific, including Mexico, Taiwan, and Brazil, to drive growth from 2027.