Moderna (MRNA) TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference summary

Financial performance and guidance

• 2025 product revenue reached $1.9 billion, at the high end of guidance, driven by strong COVID vaccine uptake and effective execution, especially in the U.S. retail channel.

• mNEXSPIKE, the latest COVID vaccine, achieved 24% penetration in the U.S. retail channel and showed superior efficacy, particularly in older adults.

• 2026 revenue guidance projects up to 10% growth, with a balanced geographic mix and significant international expansion, especially in the UK, Canada, and Australia.

• International revenue is expected to increase as strategic partnerships mature and previously delayed revenue is recognized in early 2026.

• Cost control remains a key lever for achieving cash flow break even by 2028, with a target of $3.7 billion in costs by 2027.

Product pipeline and growth drivers

• Growth is expected from a diversified portfolio, including COVID, flu, RSV, norovirus, and combination vaccines, with 10 major growth drivers identified.

• Flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) regulatory progress includes a PDUFA date in August and a post-marketing commitment for the 65+ age group, with approval anticipated for ages 50-64.

• Flu/COVID combo vaccine received a positive CHMP opinion in Europe, with approval expected in coming months; significant revenue impact is projected from 2027 onward, especially as European markets open.

• RSV is not expected to be a major growth driver until revaccination schedules are clarified and portfolio maturation occurs.

• Norovirus vaccine interim data is expected in 2026, with a potential launch in 2028 targeting a substantial market.

Strategic focus and capital allocation

• Capital is being reallocated toward areas with better risk-adjusted returns, with a continued focus on infectious disease, oncology, autoimmune, and rare diseases.

• Diversification beyond mRNA is a long-term goal, but current focus remains on executing the mRNA portfolio.

• Out-licensing of the PA rare disease program to Recordati was a capital allocation decision to leverage existing commercial infrastructure and reduce upfront investment risk.