MTN Group (MTN) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong underlying operational and financial performance in FY 2024, with robust H2 momentum despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, including naira devaluation and Sudan conflict.

• Delivered resilient results with strong commercial momentum, driven by data and fintech service revenues growing 21.9% and 28.5% year-over-year, respectively.

• Advanced strategic priorities: completed localizations in Uganda and Ghana, exited Afghanistan, Guinea-Bissau, and Guinea-Conakry, and secured Mastercard investment in Fintech.

• Maintained group guidance and reinstated Nigeria guidance for FY 2025, reflecting improved macro visibility.

• Declared FY 2024 dividend per share of 345 cents (NGN 0.0345), with Board anticipating a minimum of 370 cents for FY 2025.

Financial highlights

• Group service revenue up 13.8% year-over-year in constant currency; data revenue up 21.9%, fintech up 28.5% in CC.

• Adjusted headline earnings per share declined by 32.2% to 816 cents, mainly due to naira devaluation; underlying business remains strong.

• EBITDA margin at 38.2% in constant currency, improving to 39.9% in H2 from 36.5% in H1.

• Operating free cash flow before spectrum and licenses was R31.4bn, down 31.6% year-over-year, but H2 showed a strong rebound.

• Capex (ex-leases) R29.9bn; capex intensity 15.9%.

Outlook and guidance

• Group guidance maintained; Nigeria guidance reinstated with FY 2025 service revenue and margin expected at least mid-40%.

• Medium-term guidance: Group service revenue growth at least mid-teens, South Africa mid-single-digit, Nigeria high-20% to low-30%, fintech high-20% to low-30%.

• Capex guidance for 2025 set at R30–35bn, with intensity to remain in the 15–18% range.

• Focus on prepaid recovery in South Africa, sustainable tariff implementation in Nigeria, and accelerating fintech.

• Continued emphasis on expense efficiency, cash upstreaming, and balance sheet strength.