National Bank of Greece (ETE) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY24 exceeded revised guidance across key metrics; Core PAT reached €1,321m, up 10% YoY, and Core ROTE was 17.5%.

• Strong loan growth, fee momentum and asset quality supported results despite lower interest rates; Greece’s economy grew ~2.5%.

• Regained investment grade from three rating agencies, with continued digital and IT transformation.

Financial highlights

• Group NII rose 4% YoY to €2,356m; net fee and commission income increased 12% to €427m, lifting core income 5% to €2,784m.

• Core operating profit rose 7% to €1,677m; Core PAT increased 10% to €1,321m, while attributable PAT rose 5% to €1,158m.

• Performing loans grew €3.1b, or 10% YoY, to €33.6b; FY24 disbursements were €9.3b, up 31%.

• Operating expenses rose 6% to €884m, reflecting IT investment and wage growth; loan and other impairments fell 8% to €222m.

• Q4 2024 included one-off costs of €90m for VES, €30m for market placement and €25m for school donations.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025–27 plan targets NII above €2.3b by 2027, NIM above 280bps and fee income CAGR above 8%.

• Performing loan growth targeted at ~8% annually; NPE ratio expected to fall to ~2% by 2027.

• ROTE targeted above 14% steady state and above 18% based on internal CET1 targets; EPS expected to exceed €1.5.

• OpEx growth guided at ~5% CAGR; cost of risk targeted below 40bps by 2027.

• Payout ratio expected to rise to ~60% from 2025 profits, with intended allocation of 35% to dividends and 15% to buybacks, subject to approvals.