National Bank of Greece (ETE) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Profit after tax for 9M25 reached approximately €1.0 billion, with ROTE at 16.1% (15.6% normalized), supported by robust loan and fee growth despite lower interest rates.

• CET1 ratio increased to 19.0%, providing sector-leading capital strength and strategic flexibility for growth and shareholder returns.

• Transformation program advanced, including digital innovation and a core banking system upgrade set for completion in 1Q26.

• Greek macroeconomic environment remains strong, with GDP growth expected to exceed 2% in coming years, driven by resilient corporate and household fundamentals, robust exports, and healthy consumption.

• Interim dividend of €200 million to be paid in November, with a 60% payout accrued, the highest among Greek peers.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income (NII) for 9M25 was €1.6 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year due to lower market rates; NIM at 284bps.

• Fee income grew 8% year-on-year (14% excluding state measures), with investment product fees up 74% year-on-year.

• Operating expenses rose 6.5–7.3% year-on-year, mainly due to investments in human capital and IT; cost-to-income ratio remained just over 33%.

• Cost of risk for 9M25 was 41bps, below the full-year guidance of 45bps, reflecting benign asset quality.

• EPS for the period was €1.4 on a normalized basis, in line with FY25 target.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 guidance reaffirmed: PAT around €1.0b, EPS of €1.4, ROTE above 15%, NPE ratio below 2.5%, and CET1 above 18%.

• Performing loan growth expected to exceed €2.5b for FY25, with acceleration anticipated in 4Q25 and similar strong credit growth expected in 2026.

• Q3 is expected to be the trough for NII, with gradual recovery anticipated from Q4 and more evident improvement in 2026, assuming stable rates.

• Final payout ratio for 2025 will be announced with full-year results; interim dividend already announced.