National Bank of Greece (ETE) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered resilient H1 2025 profitability with profit after tax of EUR 700 million, flat year-on-year, and normalized ROTE of 16.3%, despite lower interest rates and continued investment in digital and human capital.

• CET1 ratio increased to 18.9%, supporting upgraded full-year 2025 guidance, higher payout ratio, and interim dividend plans.

• Transformation and digital innovation programs advanced, driving operational efficiency, customer engagement, and digital sales growth.

• ESG initiatives progressed, including €750m green bond issuance and increased sustainable financing.

• Upgraded FY25 guidance for ROTE (>15%), EPS (~EUR 1.4), and performing loan expansion (>EUR 2.5 billion).

Financial highlights

• Net interest income declined 9% year-on-year to €1,080m due to lower benchmark rates, partially offset by loan growth and deposit hedges.

• Fee income grew 8% year-on-year (14% excluding state measures), with strong contributions from investment products and lending fees.

• Operating expenses rose 7% year-on-year (5% normalized), mainly from investments in human capital and IT; cost-to-income ratio at 31–32.5%.

• Cost of risk dropped to 40–43 bps, leading to upgraded guidance of below 45 bps for the year.

• Attributable PAT up 4% year-on-year to €697m; ROTE at 17.5% (16.3% normalized).

Outlook and guidance

• Upgraded FY25 guidance: ROTE (>15%), EPS (~EUR 1.4), cost of risk (<45 bps), payout ratio (60%), and performing loan expansion (>EUR 2.5 billion).

• Interim dividend planned for Q4 2025, with potential for recurring future interim payouts, subject to regulatory approval.

• NII expected to decline slightly in Q3 and then plateau, with 9% year-on-year decline for 2025.

• Capital position expected to remain strong, supporting higher payouts and strategic flexibility.

• Performing loan expansion target increased to >€2.5b; NPE ratio guidance maintained at <2.5%.