National Bank of Greece (ETE) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Nine-month core PAT reached €1.0b, up 15% year-on-year, with core ROTE at 17.5% and cost-to-core income at 30.5%.

• Strong capital position with CET1 at 18.7% and Total Capital Ratio at 21.5%, both up year-to-date.

• Loan disbursements exceeded €5b in 9M24, up 18% year-on-year, with performing loans up €1.8b year-over-year and a strong corporate pipeline.

• Asset quality remains robust, with NPE ratio at 3.3% and NPE coverage at 86%.

• Digital transformation and technology investments continue, with over 3 million active users and strong market share in digital products.

Financial highlights

• Net Interest Income (NII) for 9M24 was €1.8b, up 9% year-on-year, with NIM at 322bps; fee income grew 14% year-on-year, led by retail and investment products.

• Core Pre-Provision Income (PPI) reached €1.5b (+11% yoy); operating expenses increased 4% year-on-year, with cost-to-core income at 30.5%.

• Core PAT for 9M24 was €983m (+15% yoy, +4% qoq); EPS at €1.43.

• Loan-to-deposit ratio at 60%; liquidity coverage ratio at 270%.

• CoR at 54bps in 9M24, down from 66bps in 9M23.

Outlook and guidance

• FY24 NII expected to surpass FY23, with NIM above 310bps and core ROTE guided above 16%.

• FY24 cost-to-core income expected below 33%; cost of risk to remain below 60bps.

• Loan growth outlook is optimistic, with expectations to exceed the 2024 target of €1.5b, supported by a strong corporate pipeline.

• Payout ratio for 2024 profits may rise to 50%, with buybacks likely included in 2025 distribution; 9M24 accrual for a 40% payout in 2025 out of 2024 profits.

• 2025 may see a reduction in NII, with recovery expected from 2026.