National Bank of Greece (ETE) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY24 delivered strong recurring profitability, with core PAT at €1.3b (up 10% year-over-year), core ROTE at 17.5%, and a payout ratio of 50%, surpassing guidance across all key metrics.

• Achieved double-digit credit expansion, robust fee growth, and improved asset quality, supported by Greece's resilient economic environment and operational transformation.

• Investment grade regained from three rating agencies, enhancing strategic flexibility and value creation.

• Significant progress in digital and IT transformation, including rollout of a new core banking system and digital banking enhancements.

• Free float increased to 92% after second placement, boosting liquidity and turnover.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income (NII) rose 4% year-over-year to €2.4b, with NIM at 319bps for 2024; fee income up 12% to €427m, driven by investment products and corporate lending.

• Performing loan book expanded by €3.1b (+10% year-over-year), with disbursements of €9.3b.

• Operating expenses increased by 5–6% year-over-year, mainly due to wage costs and IT investments, but cost-to-core income ratio stayed at or below 32%.

• CET1 ratio reached 18.3%, total capital ratio at 21.1%, and MREL ratio at 28.0%, exceeding regulatory targets.

• NPE ratio dropped to 2.6% with coverage near 98–100%; cost of risk normalized to 53bps.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025–2027 business plan targets NIM above 280bps, NII over €2.3b by 2027, and fee income CAGR above 8%.

• ROTE expected at over 14% steady state or over 18% on internal CET1 target by 2027; payout ratio to increase to about 60% from 2025 earnings.

• Performing loan growth guided at about 8% CAGR; NPE ratio to fall to about 2% by 2027; CET1 to remain above 18% post-payouts.

• OPEX growth to remain mid-single digit, with cost-to-income ratio around 35% and cost of risk below 40bps by 2027.

• Shareholder remuneration to be split between cash dividends and share buybacks, depending on share price and valuation.