National CineMedia (NCMI) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 revenue reached $86.3 million, surpassing guidance for the fifth consecutive quarter, despite a year-over-year decline due to a weaker film slate and prior year overperformance from Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.

• Full-year 2024 revenue was $240.8 million, down 7.3% year-over-year, impacted by lower attendance, a weaker movie slate, and the loss of beverage revenue from the Regal ESA termination.

• Adjusted EBITDA/OIBDA for Q4 2024 was $35.0 million, exceeding guidance but down from $39.8 million in Q4 2023; full-year Adjusted EBITDA/OIBDA was $45.7 million, a 13% decrease year-over-year.

• Cinema advertising demand remains strong, with 25 new advertisers in Q4 and significant engagement from Gen Z and Millennials.

• Share repurchase program bought 2.5 million shares for $13.4 million at an average price of $5.28 as of year-end.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 revenue: $86.3 million (vs. $90.9 million in Q4 2023); Adjusted OIBDA: $35.0 million (vs. $39.8 million in Q4 2023); operating income: $20.0 million.

• Full-year 2024 revenue: $240.8 million (vs. $259.8 million in 2023); Adjusted OIBDA: $45.7 million (vs. $52.7 million in 2023); operating loss: $19.5 million.

• Free cash flow for 2024 was $54.5 million; unlevered free cash flow was $55.4 million.

• Cash and equivalents at year-end were $78.2 million, up from $37.6 million; total equity was $411.2 million.

• Q4 2024 Adjusted OIBDA margin was 40.6%; full-year margin was 19.0%.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2025 revenue expected between $34 million and $36 million, with Adjusted OIBDA between -$9.5 million and -$7.5 million due to a softer film slate and delayed ad spend.

• Annual SG&A expenses projected to rise by high single digits in 2025, reflecting strategic investments in sales and infrastructure.

• Second quarter 2025 pacing is strong, with optimism for a robust full year as box office momentum continues.

• Forward-looking statements caution on risks from theater attendance, film availability, competition, and economic conditions.