NextDecade (NEXT) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Phase I construction remained safe, on budget, and ahead of schedule; first gas is expected before year-end 2026, Train 1 first LNG in Q2 2027, and substantial completion in Q3 2027, one quarter ahead of its guaranteed date.

• Q3 net income attributable to common stockholders was $155.4M, driven by an $851.2M derivative gain, despite an $82.9M operating loss.

• Current forward curves imply ramp-up margins above $6/MMBtu and projected project-level distributable cash flow above $2.4B, versus a $2B base case; Train 6 FID is targeted for H2 2027.

• Trains 1–5 have 30.15 MTPA of authorized capacity; Trains 6–8 could add 18 MTPA, with site potential of up to 60 MTPA.

Financial highlights

• Q3 operating loss was $82.9M versus $72.0M a year earlier; net income attributable to common stockholders was $155.4M versus a $109.5M loss, including an $851.2M derivative gain.

• 9M net loss attributable to common stockholders was $46.5M versus $259.2M a year earlier; derivative gain was $905.2M.

• Ramp-up distributable cash flow is projected above $2.4B at implied margins above $6/MMBtu, versus ~$2.0B at $5/MMBtu; each $1/MMBtu margin change shifts cash flow by $350M–$400M.

• More than 175 TBtu of LNG volumes were sold forward at estimated margins above $3/MMBtu; the Q1 sales are included in the current weighted average margin estimate above $6/MMBtu.

• 9M operating cash use was $16.6M and investing cash use was $3.394B, primarily for facility construction.

Outlook and guidance

• First gas is expected before year-end 2026; Train 1 first LNG is targeted for Q2 2027 and substantial completion for Q3 2027, one quarter ahead of its guaranteed schedule; Trains 2 and 3 are also expected early.

• Train 6 positive FID is targeted for H2 2027, subject to permits, commercial support, and financing; its final EIS is expected in June 2027.

• The steady-state sponsor-level debt target is $2B–$2.25B after Train 5 commercial delivery; current forward curves imply cash generation above the amount needed to reach it.

• Approximately 85% of expected five-train LNG production is covered by long-term SPAs; 175 TBtu of early-cargo agreements cover ~33% of expected portfolio volumes from 2027 through early 2029.

• FERC pre-filing for Trains 7–8 is expected before year-end 2026; the two trains are planned as a combined project, with development schedules roughly one year behind Train 6.