NFI Group (NFI) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record backlog of $13.7 billion, with highest-ever zero-emission bus deliveries and 36.5% ZEBS in backlog, despite ongoing seat supply disruptions and UK market headwinds.

• Q1 2025 revenue grew 16.4% year-over-year to $841.4 million, with improved gross margin and adjusted EBITDA.

• Net loss improved to $6.5 million, a $2.9 million year-over-year improvement; adjusted EBITDA rose 84.4% to $62.7 million.

• North American public transit markets are sold out for 2025, with options extending into 2030, reflecting robust demand.

• Aftermarket business continues to provide steady recurring revenue, though volumes declined from record 2024 levels.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 revenue: $841.4 million, up 16.4% year-over-year; gross margin: $94.0 million (11.2%), up 36.3% from Q1 2024.

• Net loss: $6.5 million, improved by $2.9 million year-over-year; adjusted net earnings: $2.9 million.

• Adjusted EBITDA up 84.4% year-over-year to $62.7 million; manufacturing segment EBITDA up $35 million.

• Free cash flow positive at $4.4 million, up 121% year-over-year, supported by $23.7 million working capital inflow.

• Book-to-bill ratio at 139.3% for the quarter; option backlog conversion rate steady at 76% LTM.

Outlook and guidance

• Reaffirmed 2025 guidance: revenue of $3.8–$4.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $320–$360 million, and ROIC at 9–12%.

• Management expects continued growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and net earnings through 2025 and into 2026.

• ZEBS expected to comprise 35–40% of manufacturing sales in 2025.

• Second half of 2025 expected to contribute about 60% of full-year EBITDA, reflecting typical seasonality.

• Guidance excludes potential impacts from tariffs and U.S. funding policy changes.