NFI Group (NFI) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record backlog of $12.8 billion, up 61.2% year-over-year, with strong demand from North American public transit operators and 40.3% zero-emission buses in backlog, despite supply chain disruptions, particularly with a key seat supplier.

• Fiscal 2024 saw significant improvements in profitability, with net earnings of $18.6 million in Q4, a $20.9 million increase year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 up 77% to $67.9 million.

• Aftermarket segment delivered a record year, providing a solid base for 2025, with record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, while UK market demand softened.

• Operational and financial recovery advanced, with aggressive action plans to address supply issues and diversify suppliers.

• The company is essentially sold out in North American public transit markets for 2025 and well into 2026, with options extending to 2030.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 revenue was $837 million, up 5.1% year-over-year; full-year revenue was $3,122.3 million, up 16%.

• Quarterly adjusted EBITDA increased 77% year-over-year to $67.9 million; full-year Adjusted EBITDA reached $214.4 million, a $145.2 million improvement.

• Net earnings for Q4 2024 were $18.6 million ($0.16/share), a $21 million improvement year-over-year; full-year net earnings up 97.6%.

• Aftermarket segment delivered record Q4 revenue of $157.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $32.8 million, up 16% and 11% year-over-year, respectively.

• Free cash flow for Q4 was $0.6 million, down from $2.7 million in Q4 2023, reflecting higher working capital needs.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: adjusted EBITDA of $320–$360 million, revenue of $3.8–$4.2 billion, and ROIC of 9–12%.

• 35–40% of manufacturing revenue expected from zero-emission buses in 2025.

• Anticipates at least 5,000 equivalent units delivered in 2025, with higher ZEB sales and improved product mix.

• Guidance does not include potential impacts from tariffs, U.S. or Canadian policy changes, or escalated geopolitical risks.

• Expects sequential decrease in Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025 due to seasonality and ongoing seat supply issues.