NFI Group (NFI) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record Q4 and full-year 2025 results, with revenue up 22.5% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA up 78.7% year-over-year, supported by a $13.0 billion backlog and significant margin expansion.

• Net earnings for Q4 were $166.0 million, with a full-year net loss of $63.9 million due to non-recurring battery recall and settlement impacts.

• Leadership transition completed, with new CEO emphasizing operational excellence, supply chain readiness, and customer focus.

• Strategic priorities for 2026 include production ramp-up, cost management, leveraging a robust order book, and operational excellence.

• Delivered 1,233 equivalent units in Q4, with 27.4% being zero-emission buses.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 revenue reached $1,025.1 million, up 22.5% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA was $121.3 million, up 78.7% year-over-year.

• Net earnings for Q4 were $166.0 million, up from $18.6 million in Q4 2024; adjusted net earnings for Q4 were $59.6 million, up 328.8% year-over-year.

• Liquidity rose by $319 million year-over-year to $445.8 million, aided by a battery settlement.

• Free cash flow for 2025 was $67.8 million, with Q4 free cash flow at $32.9 million.

• Manufacturing gross margin reached 17.0% in Q4.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 revenue guidance: $3.9–$4.2 billion; adjusted EBITDA: $370–$410 million; cash CapEx: $50–$60 million.

• Backlog exceeds 15,300 EUs, with 41% firm orders and 59% options, providing strong production visibility into 2027.

• Option conversion ratio improved to 83.4% in 2025 from 76.3% in 2024.

• Expect to reach target leverage range (1.5x–2.5x) by late 2026 or early 2027.

• Guidance includes current tariffs but excludes potential future tariff impacts.