Nutrien (NTR) Q2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.3 billion in H1 2024, driven by higher crop input margins, record potash sales, improved Retail margins, and lower operating costs.

• Net earnings for H1 2024 were $0.6 billion, with Q2 net earnings at $392 million, reflecting lower fertilizer prices but improved Retail performance.

• Upstream fertilizer and downstream retail in North America and Australia performed well, while Brazil faced ongoing challenges and asset rationalization.

• Mark Thompson appointed as CFO, effective August 26, 2024, succeeding Pedro Farah.

• Discontinued Geismar Clean Ammonia project, resulting in a $195 million non-cash impairment.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2024 sales were $10.2 billion, down 13% year-over-year; gross margin was $2.9 billion, down 8%.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was $2.2 billion, down 10% year-over-year; H1 adjusted EBITDA was $3.3 billion, down 16%.

• Retail Adjusted EBITDA rose 17% year-over-year to $1.2 billion in H1, with improved gross margins across all product lines.

• Potash Adjusted EBITDA was $1 billion in H1, down from prior year due to lower prices, despite record sales volumes.

• Capital expenditures for H1 2024 were $920 million, down from $1.26 billion in H1 2023; full-year CapEx guidance maintained at $2.2-$2.3 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2024 Retail Adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered to $1.5–$1.7 billion due to Brazil market instability and delayed North American planting.

• Potash sales volume guidance raised to 13.2–13.8 million tonnes on strong global demand; global potash shipment forecast for 2024 raised to 69–72 million tonnes.

• Nitrogen sales volume guidance narrowed to 10.7–11.1 million tonnes; phosphate guidance lowered to 2.5–2.6 million tonnes.

• Targeting 10%+ annual growth in proprietary products gross margin, supporting 2026 retail Adjusted EBITDA target of $1.9–$2.1 billion.

• Finance costs guidance lowered to $0.7–$0.8 billion; effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings expected at 23–25%.