ReFuels (REFL) Investor update summary

Operational and financial highlights

• Supplied about 50% of biomethane for trucks in the UK, helping customers save over £50 million in fuel costs and reduce emissions by more than 200,000 tons in the last year.

• Transitioned from a build-only phase to a cash flow positive phase, with EBITDA for the quarter at £9.7 million, up 10x year-over-year.

• Dispense volume increased 30% year-over-year, despite a soft truck market, with CNG adoption growing among customers.

• Raised full-year EBITDA guidance from £10–12 million to £13–15 million, driven by operational efficiencies, scale, and higher certificate prices.

• Achieved record 82.2 million RTFCs generated and sold in the quarter, with gross profit margin on RTFC sales at 31%.

Market and infrastructure development

• Operates 16 grid-connected stations and 11 mobile refueling stations, aiming for 25 grid stations and 30 mobile stations by end of 2028.

• Current network supports over 2,200 trucks daily, with theoretical capacity to refuel 11,500 trucks, targeting expansion to 20,000.

• Recent and upcoming station openings include Livingston (Scotland), Magor (South Wales), and Swindon, with further sites planned.

• Infrastructure model is unique in Europe, with unmanned, remotely monitored stations and significant IP, making expansion outside the UK likely via JV or M&A.

Market trends and outlook

• CNG truck market share is 10% for four-by-two trucks but only 0.1% for six-by-two trucks, with rapid growth expected as new models are adopted.

• Truck replacement cycle will drive future demand, with 100,000 trucks expected to be replaced over the next decade.

• Customers are motivated by both cost savings and emissions reduction, with CNG trucks offering payback periods of 1–1.5 years.

• Biomethane supply is robust, with £30 billion investment planned in European production over five years.