ReFuels (REFL) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue grew to GBP 27.6m in Q1 2025, up from GBP 19.1m in Q1 2024, with Bio-CNG dispensed volumes up 30% year-over-year to 13,582 tonnes and strong customer adoption, including a 27.5% increase in average daily refuelling vehicles to 1,742.

• Station portfolio EBITDA rose 125% year-over-year to GBP 1.73m in Q1 2025, with annualized run-rate at GBP 6.9m and expected to exceed GBP 12m by March 2025.

• Confirmed truck orders and a strong pipeline, with over 910 trucks on order for delivery in the next 12 months, support further network expansion and volume growth.

• Expansion includes new stations in construction, five high-capacity stations in late-stage development, and a growing mobile refueling station (MRS) network, with 30% of trucks now refueled via MRS.

• Structure simplification with Foresight Group is underway, expected to strengthen the balance sheet, consolidate cashflows, and facilitate access to capital.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 revenue: GBP 27.6m; gross profit: GBP 2.9m, reversing a GBP 1.1m loss last year; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to GBP 1.3m from GBP 1.7m; net loss before tax: GBP -5.7m.

• Overhead costs per kilo dispensed reduced to 29p from 59p year-over-year, reflecting economies of scale.

• Net cash flow from operations was GBP 3.2m; cash and cash equivalents at period end: GBP 9.1m.

• Equity ratio at 60% as of June 2024; total assets GBP 176.2m; total equity GBP 105.4m.

• 34.4 million RTFCs generated and sold, down 8% year-over-year due to timing, but margins improved to 18% in Q1 and 19.5% in July.

Outlook and guidance

• Annualized station portfolio EBITDA expected to exceed GBP 12m by March 2025, with monthly run rate over GBP 1m before March 2025.

• Over 910 Bio-CNG trucks on order for delivery in the next 12 months, expected to boost run-rate and support growth targets.

• Five new high-capacity stations to be ready for construction in 2024, with IRRs of 25-45% and long-term plans for 30-40 UK stations by end-2026 and European expansion.

• Margins on biomethane and RTFCs expected to recover to historical 30%+ levels as market normalizes.

• Expansion outside the UK considered for 2025 onwards, pending market conditions.