Stellantis (STLAM) Q3 2024 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2024 net revenues fell 27% year-over-year to €33.0 billion, driven by a 20% decline in shipments to 1.15 million units, inventory normalization, product launch delays, and adverse mix, pricing, and FX impacts.

• Inventory reduction actions, especially in North America, led to a 51,000 unit decrease in U.S. dealer stock in Q3, with a target of 330,000 units by November 2024.

• The company is undergoing a major product transition, with about 20 new models planned for 2024 and significant platform consolidation underway.

• Management acknowledged performance is below potential and is focused on corrective actions and strategic improvements for 2025.

• Strong order intake for new models, including over 50,000 Citroën C3, 75,000 Peugeot 3008, and 10,000 Alfa Romeo Junior.

Financial highlights

• Net revenues declined 27% to €33.0B in Q3 2024 from €45.1B in Q3 2023, with consolidated shipments down 20% to 1,148,000 units.

• Year-to-date net revenues fell 18% to €118.0B, with combined shipments down 15% to 4,105,000 units.

• Revenue declines were primarily attributed to lower volume and mix, negative pricing (mainly North America), and FX headwinds of €1.1 billion.

• North America shipments dropped 36%, Europe 17%, Middle East & Africa 26%, South America up 14% but revenues down 2% due to FX, and China, India, Asia-Pacific down 30%.

• Maserati shipments down 60% and net revenues down 61%, mainly from reduced demand in China and portfolio reduction.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2024 AOI margin guidance reiterated at 5.5%–7%, with industrial free cash flow projected at -€5 billion to -€10 billion.

• Management expects shipment and revenue headwinds to peak in H2 2024 and diminish in 2025 as new products ramp up.

• Capital return policies, including dividends and buybacks, remain unchanged for 2025, supported by a robust balance sheet.

• U.S. market share stabilization and expanded product reach anticipated for 2025 and beyond.