TransAlta (TA) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 Adjusted EBITDA rose 11% YoY to $264 million; common-share net earnings were $63 million versus a $62 million loss a year earlier.

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $950 million–$1.05 billion and FCF guidance of $350 million–$450 million were reaffirmed.

Financial highlights

• Q3 revenue was $536 million, down from $615 million YoY, while gross margin rose to $411 million from $353 million.

• Q3 adjusted net earnings were $56 million, or $0.18 per share, versus an adjusted loss of $8 million, or $0.02 per share; reported EPS was $0.20 versus a $0.20 loss.

• Q3 FCF was $93 million, or $0.29 per share; FFO was $146 million, or $0.46 per share.

• 9M revenue declined 12% to $1.588 billion and Adjusted EBITDA fell 11% to $759 million; FCF was $338 million versus $421 million.

• Q3 operating income was $146 million versus $11 million; earnings before income taxes were $100 million versus a $53 million loss.

Outlook and guidance

• 9M Adjusted EBITDA was $759 million and FCF was $338 million, against full-year guidance of $950 million–$1.05 billion and $350 million–$450 million, respectively.

• Full-year Alberta hedges cover 9,364 GWh at $65/MWh; hedged gas totals 40.9 million GJ at $3.04/GJ.

• A $1/MWh change in Alberta spot prices is expected to affect remaining-2026 Adjusted EBITDA by $1 million in either direction.

• Centralia coal-to-gas conversion is expected to require US$600 million; a final investment decision is targeted for early 2027, with operations anticipated in late 2028.

• Priorities include fleet reliability, Alberta data-centre development, Centralia conversion and optimization of the Alberta merchant fleet.