Trifork Group (TRIFOR) Q2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2024 and H1 saw revenue and profitability decline, with Q2 revenue at EUR 52.5m (down 5.0% year-over-year) and H1 revenue at EUR 102.8m (down 2.0%), but full-year growth is still expected at a reduced rate.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin for H1 2024 was 10.8%, with Q2 margin at 12.0%, both down from the prior year due to lower utilization and negative Cyber Protection results.

• Guidance for 2024 was revised to EUR 215-220 million in revenue (3.4-5.8% growth) and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 31-34 million (margin 14.1-15.8%).

• Net income for H1 2024 rose to EUR 3.6m, mainly due to Labs fair value gains and a lower tax rate.

• Midterm guidance is maintained, with acceleration expected in 2025 and 2026.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2024 EBIT was EUR 1.9m (3.6% margin), down 53.4% year-over-year; H1 EBIT was EUR 3.3m (3.2% margin), down 62.8%.

• Q2 2024 adjusted EBITDA was EUR 6.3m (12.0% margin), down 19.1% year-over-year.

• Free cash flow for H1 2024 was EUR 1.2m, down from EUR 6.2m in H1 2023.

• Dividend of EUR 0.10 per share paid in April 2024; share buyback program completed in March 2024.

• Inorganic growth contributed 1.6% in H1, mainly from acquisitions.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 revenue guidance is EUR 215–220m, with 3.4–5.8% total growth and 0.8–3.2% organic growth; adjusted EBITDA guidance is EUR 31–34m (14.1–15.8% margin).

• Mid-term targets (2024–2026): 15–25% total revenue CAGR, 10–15% organic CAGR, and 16–20% EBITDA margin.

• Guidance assumes no material change in soft market conditions; new acquisitions not included.

• New public sector contracts and framework agreements are expected to drive growth from late 2024 into 2025-2027.

• Margin improvement is anticipated in H2 2024 as utilization increases and new contracts ramp up.