ArcelorMittal (MT) Q2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered $3.8bn EBITDA and $1.4bn net income in H1 2024, with $1.80 EPS and $11.4bn liquidity, despite challenging market conditions.

• Strategic growth projects advancing, including Vega CMC (Brazil) and 1GW renewables in India, with nearly $3bn invested over 3.5 years.

• 36% of equity repurchased since September 2020; $1.1bn returned to shareholders in H1 2024 via buybacks and dividends.

• Safety remains a top priority, with a comprehensive third-party audit underway and actions being developed to achieve a fatality-free organization.

• Decarbonization and sustainability initiatives progressing, with XCarbⓇ product sales on track to double in 2024.

Financial highlights

• H1 2024 EBITDA: $3.8bn; Net income: $1.4bn; Net debt: $5.2bn at June 30, 2024; Book value: $66/share.

• Q2 2024 EBITDA was $1.86bn, down 4.8% from Q1; H1 2024 EBITDA down 25.7% year-over-year.

• Free cash flow was slightly positive in Q2, with annualized investable cash flow at $1.7bn; H1 2024 free cash flow was $(84)m after $1.5bn strategic capex and $1.8bn shareholder returns.

• Liquidity at $11.4bn as of June 30, 2024; average debt maturity 6.9 years; S&P BBB- and Moody's Baa3, both with positive outlook.

• Q2 2024 sales were $16.2bn; H1 2024 sales were $32.5bn, down 12.3% year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• Global ex-China steel demand forecast to grow 2.5%–3.0% in 2024; India expected 7.5%–9.5%; EU/US flat to modest growth.

• Apparent demand in H2 2024 expected higher than H2 2023, with restocking anticipated as real demand recovers.

• Capex guidance for 2024 remains $4.5–$5.0bn, with H1 spend at $2.2bn and $1.4–$1.5bn for strategic growth.

• Free cash flow expected to improve as $1.6bn working capital investment in H1 2024 is anticipated to reverse by year-end.

• No material step-up in decarbonization CapEx expected in 2025; 2024/2025 spend to remain at $300–$400m, mostly for engineering studies.