Capital Power (CPX) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 results reflect strong flexible generation, portfolio resilience, and strategic execution amid macro volatility, with continued value creation and diversification across North America.

• Delivered strong results driven by generation strength, diversification, and M&A activity, with stable business operations.

• Leadership transitions include the appointment of Kevin MacIntosh as CFO and other executive changes, reinforcing organizational strength.

• Extended Arlington Valley contract to 2038, securing additional contracted revenue and capacity uprates.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 was $404M, up $37M year-over-year, driven by recent U.S. acquisitions.

• AFFO for the quarter was $154M, down $64M year-over-year, mainly due to higher sustaining capital expenditures, financing, and tax expenses.

• Revenues and other income totaled $1,205M, up $217M year-over-year, with net cash flows from operating activities at $312M, up $102M.

• Dividend increased for 12 consecutive years, compounding at 7% annually from $1.51 in 2016 to $2.69 in 2025.

• Adjusted EBITDA grew at a 13% CAGR from 2016 to 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance reaffirmed: Adjusted EBITDA $1,565M–$1,765M, AFFO $890M–$1,010M, sustaining capex $290M–$330M.

• Dividend growth projected at 2% for 2026, with long-term guidance of 2–4% annually, subject to board approval.

• By 2030, targeting 8–10% annual AFFO per share growth, 50% growth in U.S. owned capacity, and 13–15% total shareholder return.

• Construction on East Windsor Expansion and North Carolina solar projects remains on track.

• Evaluating SMR opportunities in Alberta and data centre co-location across North America.