Capital Power (CPX) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record annual generation of 38 TWh in 2024, driven by portfolio growth, major facility turnarounds, and strategic asset optimization.

• Completed Genesee Repowering Project, transitioning to 100% natural gas five years ahead of mandate, increasing capacity by over 500 MW, and reducing Scope 1 GHG emissions by 3.4 Mt annually.

• Expanded U.S. presence with acquisitions of La Paloma and Harquahala, now with ~10 GW capacity and a 50/50 split between Canada and U.S.; U.S. portfolio share of Adjusted EBITDA rose to 57% in 2024.

• Executed a 49% sell-down of two Canadian wind assets, generating CAD 333 million pre-tax and exceeding targeted returns.

• Advanced renewables and storage projects, qualified for $13 million in SMR feasibility funding, and launched a refreshed sustainability approach focused on actionable decarbonization.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 Adjusted EBITDA was $330M (CAD 330M), up $17M year-over-year, driven by U.S. acquisitions.

• Full-year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA was $1,333M, down from $1,455M in 2023; AFFO was $817M, down $2M year-over-year.

• Net cash flows from operating activities in 2024 were $1,144M, up $322M year-over-year.

• Revenues and other income for 2024 were $3,776M, down from $4,282M in 2023.

• Dividends per common share declared: $2.5338, up from $2.39 in 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $1,340M–$1,440M; AFFO: $850M–$950M; sustaining CapEx: $195M–$225M.

• Strategic focus on contract optimization, U.S. flexible generation expansion, renewables development, and data center opportunities.

• Alberta commercial portfolio hedged at high-$70s/MWh for 2025; natural gas hedged at <$3/GJ.

• Near-term cash flows are highly hedged or under long-term contracts, supporting guidance stability.

• Construction of Ontario BESS and East Windsor Expansion to continue; full commercial operation of Halkirk 2 Wind expected in H1 2025.