Capital Power (CPX) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record annual generation of 38 TWh in 2024, expanding portfolio to 10 GW capacity, with major turnarounds at seven facilities and successful integration of U.S. assets through acquisitions and development in both Canada and the U.S.

• Completed Genesee Repowering Project, transitioning to 100% natural gas, increasing capacity by 512 MW, reducing emissions by 3.4 million tons annually, and positioning as the most efficient CCGT in Canada.

• Sold 49% interests in two wind facilities for CAD 333 million pre-tax, optimizing portfolio, exceeding targeted returns, and retaining operational management.

• U.S. assets now contribute up to 57% of Adjusted EBITDA, enhancing cash flow stability and reducing volatility.

• Advanced data center opportunities in Alberta and the U.S., with Alberta leading due to speed-to-market advantages.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 Adjusted EBITDA was $330 million, up $17 million year-over-year, driven by U.S. acquisitions but offset by lower Alberta generation and prices.

• Q4 2024 AFFO was $182 million, up $20 million from Q4 2023, with net cash flows from operating activities at $438 million.

• Year-end 2024 Adjusted EBITDA was $1,333 million, up $122 million year-over-year, with revenues of $3,776 million and net income of $701 million.

• Year-end AFFO was $817 million, down $2 million year-over-year, reflecting higher sustaining CapEx and recent acquisitions.

• U.S. portfolio Adjusted EBITDA rose from $369 million in 2023 to $656 million in 2024, while Alberta declined 29% to $550 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $1,340–$1,440 million; AFFO target: $770–$950 million; sustaining CapEx: $180–$225 million.

• 2025 capital spend, including contracted projects and maintenance, is fully funded along with the dividend.

• Near-term cash flows are highly hedged or under long-term contracts, supporting confidence in guidance and future acquisitions.

• Strategic priorities for 2025 include contract optimization, recontracting, M&A, facility uprates, flexible generation acquisitions, and data center opportunities.