Capital Power (CPX) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved a transformative and record year in 2025, driven by major U.S. acquisitions, strategic asset optimization, and expanded contracted cash flows, with U.S. assets now representing about 60% of capacity and adjusted EBITDA.

• Completed the largest acquisition in company history, adding 2.2 GW of U.S. natural gas generation in the PJM market for approximately $3.0 billion, and expanded renewable portfolio by 300 MW.

• Ongoing construction of three solar projects in North Carolina and commissioning of 170 MW battery storage in Ontario, with contracts through 2047.

• Formed a $4.2 billion investment partnership with Apollo Global Management to pursue further U.S. natural gas generation assets.

• Secured new long-term contracts for Midland Cogeneration Venture through 2040 and Arlington Valley through 2038, enhancing cash flow visibility.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reached $1,580 million (CAD 1.58 billion), up 18% or $237 million year-over-year, driven by U.S. acquisitions and flexible generation.

• AFFO was $1,066 million (CAD 1.07 billion), a 29% increase from 2024, reflecting higher EBITDA and lower income tax expense.

• Revenues and other income for 2025 totaled $3,720 million, a decrease of $56 million year-over-year.

• Net income for 2025 was $159 million, with Q4 net loss of $13 million; net income declined due to non-cash items and absence of prior divestiture gains.

• Increased common share dividend by 6%, marking 12 consecutive years of growth.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $1,565 million–$1,765 million; AFFO guidance: $890 million–$1,010 million.

• Sustaining capital in 2026 projected at $290 million–$330 million, reflecting proactive investment in reliability and long-term earnings durability.

• 2030 targets include 8–10% AFFO/share CAGR, 13–15% annual TSR, and ~50% U.S. growth, with capital allocation focused on AFFO per share growth and disciplined U.S. expansion.

• Positioned for growth amid rising North American electricity demand driven by AI, electrification, and population growth.