Capital Power (CPX) investor relations material

Market environment and growth drivers

• North American power demand is rising, driven by AI infrastructure and data center growth, with U.S. data center power demand expected to grow at a 17% CAGR from 2025 to 2030.

• Natural gas is positioned as the most cost-effective and fastest-to-market technology for incremental firm capacity, with lower costs and shorter completion times compared to nuclear.

• Power generation growth is strongest in renewables (~80% CAGR), followed by storage (~7%) and natural gas (~5%) over recent historical periods.

Strategic platform and portfolio

• The platform has an enterprise value of $17B and a market capitalization of $10B, with a diverse 12 GW fleet, ~90% natural gas and ~60% U.S.-based.

• Portfolio diversification spans five key North American markets, with 28% AESO, 20% WECC, 18% PJM, 11% IESO, 10% other U.S., 9% MISO, and 3% other Canadian markets.

• Approximately 40% of the portfolio is merchant, 40% long-term contracted, and 20% medium-term contracted, with 7 GW available for contracting.

Financial performance and targets

• Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $1,565M–$1,765M and AFFO at $890M–$1,010M for 2026, with sustaining capex of $290M–$330M.

• Dividend per share has grown at a 7% CAGR over 12 consecutive years, and adjusted EBITDA at a 13% CAGR from 2016 to 2025.

• 2030 targets include 8–10% AFFO/share CAGR, 13–15% annual TSR, and 3.5 GW of additional owned U.S. capacity, representing ~50% U.S. growth.