Carlsberg Group (CARL) CMD 2025 summary

Financial guidance and growth algorithm

• Targets 4–6% organic revenue growth, with one-third from volume and two-thirds from revenue per hectoliter improvements, driven by premiumization, pricing, and value management.

• Gross margin is to be rebuilt to 47–49% (including Britvic), with a focus on supply chain and procurement efficiencies to keep COGS per hectoliter flat.

• Marketing investment will reach about 8.5% of revenue (adjusted for Britvic), and CapEx will be managed at 6–7% of revenue, trending toward the lower end.

• SG&A will be kept flat as a percentage of revenue, including Britvic, with cost synergies from the Britvic integration providing a one-off benefit.

• Leverage target is below 2.5x by 2027, with a 50% payout ratio and resumption of share buybacks once the target is achieved.

Strategic direction and business developments

• Focus on building a resilient, structurally growing business with a diversified beverage portfolio, emphasizing premium beer, alcohol-free brews, and soft drinks, supported by the Accelerate SAIL strategy.

• Heavy investment in digital transformation, including unified data platforms, AI-driven sales tools, and modernized ERP systems to drive efficiency and commercial capabilities.

• Expansion of multi-beverage strategy, especially in Western Europe and the UK, leveraging the Britvic acquisition to create a leading omnichannel beverage provider.

• Focus on premiumization, value management, and innovation across all regions, with tailored approaches for Asia, Central & Eastern Europe, and India.

• Building a growth culture structured around five principles: challenging the status quo, compassion, consumer passion, fast decision-making, and people empowerment.

Regional highlights and integration updates

• Western Europe: Margin opportunity from Britvic integration, premiumization, and digital commerce pilots; strong market positions in beer and soft drinks.

• UK: Transformation into the second-largest beverage provider, with revenue synergies from cross-selling, logistics, and digital platforms; strong early performance in both beer and soft drinks.

• Asia: Resilient growth through premiumization, digital acceleration, and tailored strategies for heterogeneous markets; China focus on premium brands, innovation, and expanding city penetration.

• Central & Eastern Europe and India: Growth from premiumization, international brands, and expansion in Central Asia; India leverages focused state and outlet segmentation, with strong share gains and capacity expansion.

• Britvic integration: On track to deliver cost and revenue synergies, with GBP 110m expected by October 2025 and operating profit contribution of GBP 250m by 2026, using a programmatic approach focused on growth.