Carlsberg Group (CARL) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Reported revenue grew 18.2% to DKK 45.9bn, mainly driven by the Britvic acquisition, while organic revenue declined 0.3% year-over-year due to the loss of the San Miguel brand in the UK.

• Operating profit increased 15.1% to DKK 7.2bn, with organic operating profit up 2.3% year-over-year.

• Adjusted net profit rose 3.9% to DKK 4.0bn, with adjusted EPS up 4.7% to DKK 30.4; reported net profit declined 4.7% due to higher financial and integration costs.

• Britvic integration is progressing well, contributing DKK 7.3bn in revenue and DKK 844m in operating profit since January 16, with synergy realization on track.

• Premium beer and alcohol-free brews showed strong organic growth, while soft drinks volumes were flat overall but accelerated in Q2.

Financial highlights

• Gross margin was 46.0%, down 10bp due to Britvic inclusion; organic gross profit per hl up 3%.

• Free operating cash flow was DKK 2.7bn, down year-on-year due to integration costs, higher capex, and working capital changes.

• Net interest-bearing debt increased to DKK 64.6bn, mainly due to the Britvic acquisition and dividend payments.

• Return on invested capital declined to 11.5%, mainly due to Britvic acquisition.

• EBITDA margin at 21.2%, down 40bp year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 organic operating profit growth guidance narrowed to 3-5% (from 1-5%), with Britvic expected to contribute GBP 250m in operating profit for the full year.

• CapEx guidance at DKK 7bn; financial expenses (excluding FX) expected at DKK 2.4bn; effective tax rate around 23%.

• No significant change expected in consumer environment for H2; continued focus on cost control and supply chain efficiencies.

• Translation impact on operating profit estimated at DKK -200m.