Carlsberg Group (CARL) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Reported revenue grew 18.8% to DKK 89.1bn, driven by Britvic acquisition, with operating profit (MPM) up 22.7% to DKK 14.0bn and adjusted EPS (MPM) up 11.1% to DKK 61.0.

• Britvic integration delivered ahead of plan, with 30% of GBP 110m cost synergies realized in 2025 and DKK 2.2bn in operating profit.

• Free operating cash flow reached DKK 7.0bn, up from DKK 6.4bn in 2024, supported by Britvic.

• Adjusted net profit (MPM) increased 10.7% to DKK 8.1bn; dividend per share raised by 7% to DKK 29.

• Management-defined performance measures (MPMs) introduced to align reporting, adjusting for PPA-related amortization from Britvic.

Financial highlights

• Total reported volumes up 17.7%, mainly from Britvic; organic volumes declined slightly, mainly in Asia.

• Gross margin (MPM) declined by 60 bps to 45.2% due to Britvic's lower margin; organic gross margin improved by 30 bps.

• Net interest-bearing debt rose to DKK 61.6bn post-Britvic; leverage at 3.28x EBITDA.

• Adjusted net profit MPM was DKK 8bn; adjusted EPS MPM grew 11.1% to DKK 61.

• Free cash flow was negative DKK 21.7bn due to Britvic acquisition; free operating cash flow positive at DKK 7.0bn.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 expected to see a stable but subdued consumer environment, with continued geopolitical and inflationary pressures.

• Organic operating profit MPM growth guided at 2%-6% for 2026.

• Britvic synergy realization to reach 60%-70% after two years; 30%-40% of GBP 110m expected in 2026.

• CapEx expected at DKK 6-7bn; effective tax rate around 23%.

• Volume boost of ~1.5% expected from Pepsi license in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but no profit contribution in 2026.