Carlsberg Group (CARL) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Organic revenue grew 1.3% in Q3 and 3% year-to-date, with reported revenue up 0.9% to DKK 20.5 billion, despite a challenging consumer environment and adverse weather impacting volumes, especially in China, France, and the UK.

• Volume growth in most markets was offset by declines in China, France, and the UK; year-to-date volumes up 0.8%.

• Premium, alcohol-free, and soft drinks categories showed positive growth, with premium beer up 3% YTD, alcohol-free brews up 6%, Beyond Beer up 10%, and soft drinks up 4%.

• International premium brands saw growth: Carlsberg +11%, Tuborg +2%, Brooklyn +9%, 1664 Blanc +8%, Somersby +2%.

• Britvic acquisition progressing, expected to close in Q1 2025; expanded PepsiCo partnership to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Financial highlights

• Revenue per hectoliter grew 2% in Q3 and 9M, driven by price increases and positive product mix.

• Q3 organic revenue growth of 1.3% (reported +0.9% to DKK 20.5bn), with 9M organic growth at 3.0% (reported +2.0% to DKK 59.2bn).

• Organic volume development was -0.2% in Q3 (9M: +0.8%).

• Premium beer portfolio grew 3% year-to-date; alcohol-free brews up 6%, Beyond Beer up 10%.

• Soft drinks volumes rose 4%, with strong Pepsi and Coca-Cola brand performance.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year organic operating profit growth expected between 4%-6%, unchanged from August's upward revision.

• Flat cost per hectoliter and high single-digit increase in marketing investment anticipated.

• Currency impact on operating profit expected at DKK -300 million; net financial expenses (ex-FX) at DKK -1.2 billion.

• CapEx outlook unchanged at DKK 5 billion; tax rate at 21%.