Expand Energy (EXE) Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference 2025 summary

Macro environment and market outlook

• U.S. natural gas markets have experienced significant price volatility, with current prices over $1 higher than last year's average and notable changes in production, especially in the Haynesville region.

• Industry responded quickly to low prices in the previous year, with producers exercising caution and limited incentives for supply growth at current price levels.

• Haynesville production is expected to remain disciplined, with significant growth requiring prices north of $5 to justify new development, especially in non-core areas.

• LNG export capacity is set to increase by 5.6 BCF/day by the end of 2026, driving future demand but requiring durable price signals for sustained production growth.

• Canadian gas exports to the U.S. remain vital, with integration between the two countries making tariffs on energy unlikely despite political discussions.

Production strategies and operational discipline

• Deferred turn-in-lines (TILs) and DUCs have provided flexibility in managing production, allowing for rapid response to market oversupply and cost efficiency.

• Most curtailed base volumes were brought back online by mid-December, with current production fluctuations mainly due to weather-related freeze-offs.

• Growth in U.S. supply will depend on durable demand signals, as adding rigs requires confidence in long-term market needs and price support.

• Western Haynesville development is progressing methodically, with deep, high-pressure wells showing strong early results but requiring careful capital allocation due to high costs.

Canadian market and infrastructure

• Canada is poised for structural improvement in gas pricing with new LNG export points, notably LNG Canada, expected to drive long-term demand and price uplift.

• Canadian producers benefit from lower breakeven costs and diversified marketing, with future growth opportunities tied to additional LNG phases and supportive government policies.

• Infrastructure ownership is seen as a key advantage, lowering operating costs, improving development pace, and enhancing shareholder returns.