Moderna (MRNA) Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference summary

Financial guidance and revenue outlook

• 2024 guidance incorporates conservative assumptions for APAs, reflecting past deferrals and non-fulfillment.

• U.S. COVID vaccine sales are expected to be flat year-over-year, assuming a stable vaccination base.

• RSV and non-APA international COVID sales are projected to contribute about $1 billion to 2024 revenue.

• Long-term COVID vaccination rates are expected to rise due to higher health burden compared to flu.

• Peak RSV sales are anticipated in the $2–$3 billion range, including future patient populations.

RSV product launch and market positioning

• RSV vaccine recently approved, with a focus on ease of administration via prefilled syringe.

• Product is positioned as competitive in efficacy and administration time compared to GSK and Pfizer.

• Contracting underway with major U.S. pharmacy retailers to secure market share for the upcoming season.

• Long-term goal is to achieve an equivalent market share (about 33%) among three main competitors.

• ACIP recommendation expected to be on par with competitors for adults 60+, with future expansion planned.

Clinical data and regulatory updates

• Second season RSV efficacy data expected to be presented at the upcoming ACIP meeting.

• Efficacy drop after two seasons is anticipated to be similar to competitors, remaining above 50%.

• Durability of protection and potential for annual or biennial booster recommendations are under discussion.

• European RSV filings underway, with broader international expansion planned for 2025 and beyond.

• Phase 3 INT adjuvant melanoma trial is 80% enrolled, with strong three-year data and manufacturing scale-up in progress.