Thai Oil (TOP) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 net profit rose to 3,504 MB, up 737 MB sequentially, but down 2,359 MB year-over-year, as softer refining margins and lower product spreads weighed on results.

• High refinery utilization at 113% and strong domestic sales supported operational performance despite market headwinds.

• Interim financial statements for Q1 2025 prepared under Thai Accounting Standard No. 34, focusing on new activities and events since the last annual report.

• No changes in shareholding structure or accounting policies from the previous year.

• Strategic progress included successful enforcement of security under the CFP EPC contract and a bond buyback, booking a 174 MB gain.

Financial highlights

• Sales revenue was 106,270 MB, down 5,692 MB sequentially and 7,969 MB year-over-year, reflecting lower sales volume and declining prices.

• EBITDA was 6,462 MB, nearly flat sequentially but down 4,487 MB year-over-year; EBITDA excluding stock gain/loss and NRV was 5,302 MB.

• Net operating profit fell to 2,714 MB from 3,398 MB in Q4 2024, while stock gain and inventory write-downs contributed 1,160 MB.

• Segment profit before income tax for Q1 2025 was 4,399 MB, compared to 7,365 MB in Q1 2024.

• EPS for Q1 2025 was 1.57 THB, up from 1.24 THB in Q4 2024 but down from 2.62 THB in Q1 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• Softer oil prices expected due to higher OPEC+ supply and economic concerns over U.S. tariffs, with uncertainty from sanctions.

• Refining margins seen recovering in 2H 2025, supported by seasonal gasoline demand and refinery closures, but upside limited by weak demand from U.S. tariffs.

• Thailand's petroleum demand growth to remain slow, with gasoline up 0.7% and jet fuel up 9.1% in 2025, while gasoil is expected to decline 0.6%.

• Aromatics and olefins markets face challenges from U.S. tariffs and Chinese capacity additions, with slow demand growth and margin pressure.

• Clean Fuel Project (CFP) completion is targeted for Q3 2028, with plans in place to ensure project continuity after EPC contract termination.