Thai Oil (TOP) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3/24 saw a significant drop in net profit to (4,218) MB from 5,547 MB in Q2/24, mainly due to lower refining margins, stock losses, and falling crude oil prices.

• 9M/24 net profit was 7,192 MB, down from 16,499 MB in 9M/23, reflecting weaker market conditions and lower product spreads.

• High refinery utilization at 113% in Q3/24 captured recovering domestic demand, with strong local sales and competitive cash costs.

• Strategic progress continued on key projects, including value chain expansion and sustainability initiatives.

Financial highlights

• Q3/24 sales revenue was 110,018 MB, down 8% sequentially and 8% year-over-year.

• Q3/24 EBITDA was (4,268) MB, sharply lower than 8,873 MB in Q2/24, mainly due to significant stock losses.

• Q3/24 market GRM fell to $3.8/bbl from $9.0/bbl in Q2/24; accounting GRM was (1.7)/bbl due to stock loss.

• Q3/24 EPS was (1.89) THB, down from 2.48 THB in Q2/24.

• 9M/24 EBITDA was 15,554 MB, down from 31,772 MB in 9M/23.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 oil prices expected to soften due to supply surplus from non-OPEC+ growth, despite slightly higher global oil demand.

• Refining margins projected to recover slightly in 2025, supported by jet/gasoil demand and stable economic growth, but pressured by new capacity additions.

• Domestic petroleum demand growth in 2025 will be slow, with jet demand supported by tourism and gasoline/gasoil growth limited by weak economic indicators.

• Petrochemical outlook: PX market to improve as demand outpaces capacity, but olefins face challenges from high capacity additions.