Thai Oil (TOP) Q2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 and 1H'26 saw strong refining margins and net profit growth due to Middle East tensions, higher crude prices, and tight supply, despite a planned refinery shutdown in June.

• Net profit for Q2/26 was 8,284 MB, down from Q1/26, but 1H/26 net profit rose to 27,765 MB, up 178% year-over-year.

• High refinery utilization (107% in Q2/26) and strong domestic sales were maintained, with proactive crude sourcing and operational resilience.

• Interim financial statements prepared under Thai Accounting Standard No. 34, with no significant changes in shareholding structure or accounting policies.

Financial highlights

• Q2/26 sales revenue reached 129,709 MB, up 13% quarter-over-quarter and 31% year-over-year; 1H/26 sales revenue was 244,518 MB, up 19% year-over-year.

• Market GRM in Q2/26 was $21.2/bbl, up from $12.7/bbl in Q1/26; 1H/26 averaged $17.0/bbl, up from $4.3/bbl in 1H/25.

• 1H/26 EPS was 12.43 THB/share, up from 4.47 THB/share in 1H/25; interim corporate income tax charge for 1H/26 was 7,326 MB.

• Q2/26 EBITDA (excl. stock gain/loss) was 16,511 MB; Q2/26 net profit was impacted by a 10,741 MB stock loss and 6,476 MB hedging loss.

Outlook and guidance

• Crude prices expected to remain volatile, with near-term highs from US-Iran conflict and potential easing toward $70–80/bbl by year-end as tensions de-escalate.

• Refining margins projected to soften in 2H'26 as supply recovers and product cracks normalize, but remain above historical averages.

• Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC+ production management remain key factors to monitor for future crude oil price and supply stability.

• Domestic demand growth for petroleum products is expected to slow due to higher prices, weak economic expansion, and increased EV adoption.