Thai Oil (TOP) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 net profit surged, driven by non-recurring stock gains, bond buybacks, and a timing lag between rising product prices and lower-cost crude, amid volatile crude prices from Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz closure.

• Refinery utilization remained high at 113%, with strong domestic sales and optimized production to capture local and Indochina demand.

• Crude sourcing was diversified away from the Middle East to enhance energy security, though this increased costs.

• A new indirect subsidiary, Sapthip Solar Energy Co., Ltd., was established to support solar farm projects.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2026 net profit reached 19,481 MB, up sharply from 2,458 MB in Q4 2025 and 3,504 MB in Q1 2025, driven by a 16,746 MB stock gain and a 2,436 MB gain from bond buybacks.

• EBITDA rose to 31,641 MB, with EBITDA excluding stock gain and NRV at 14,850 MB.

• Sales revenue increased to 114,809 MB, up 5% QoQ and 8% YoY.

• Basic EPS was Baht 8.72, compared to Baht 1.57 in Q1 2025.

• Accounting GRM soared to $38.0/bbl, with market GRM at $12.7/bbl, reflecting high stock gains.

Outlook and guidance

• Refining margins are expected to soften in Q2 2026 and 2H 2026 as tensions ease, with high pre-secured crude premiums and normalization of product supply.

• Q2 2026 faces pressure from higher refinery costs and government-mandated diesel price cuts, potentially leading to inventory losses and reduced profitability.

• Commitments to procure 28.66 million barrels of crude at an average price of $117.25/barrel for Q2 2026 and beyond.

• Global oil demand growth for 2026 has been revised down, with ongoing geopolitical risks and economic slowdown weighing on margins.