Thai Oil (TOP) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong net profit growth in FY25, driven by higher refinery utilization and improved product spreads, despite a challenging macro environment.

• Completed major asset monetization and deleveraging actions, enhancing financial flexibility and maintaining investment grade credit ratings.

• Advanced the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) with additional investment and successful contractor awards, supporting future margin leadership.

• Maintained leadership in ESG, receiving top sustainability and governance awards for consecutive years.

Financial highlights

• FY25 net profit reached 14,584 MB, up 46% year-over-year; Q4/25 net profit was 2,458 MB, up 14% quarter-over-quarter.

• Net operating profit for FY25 was 11,470 MB, down from 16,808 MB in FY24 due to higher non-operating losses.

• Market GRM improved to $5.5/bbl in FY25 from $5.3/bbl in FY24; Q4/25 GRM surged to $9.4/bbl.

• EBITDA for FY25 was 17,619 MB, down from 22,026 MB in FY24, reflecting higher costs and lower stock gains.

• Stock losses and inventory write-downs narrowed to (4,970) MB in FY25 from (5,993) MB in FY24.

Outlook and guidance

• Expect healthy refining margins in 2026, supported by strong middle distillate demand and limited net capacity additions.

• Gasoline market to soften due to new supply from major refineries, while middle distillate outlook remains robust.

• Thailand's petroleum demand growth in 2026 projected to be slow, with jet fuel demand supported by tourism recovery.

• Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs to keep oil prices volatile, but oversupply will cap upside.