Tryg (TRYG) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Insurance service result reached DKK 2,130m in Q3 2024, up from DKK 1,513m, driven by 3.9% revenue growth and lower large and weather claims, with a combined ratio of 78.2%.

• Insurance revenue grew 3.9% in local currencies, led by Private (+6.7%) and Commercial (+4.5%) segments, while Corporate declined by 18.1% due to higher churn and portfolio rebalancing.

• Dividend per share increased to DKK 1.95, up over 5%, reflecting higher insurance earnings and RSA Scandinavia synergies.

• Customer satisfaction remained high at 86, though slightly below the CMD target of 88, with improved claims processes post-Guidewire implementation.

• Synergies from the RSA Scandinavia acquisition totaled DKK 864m, nearing the DKK 900m target for 2024.

Financial highlights

• Pre-tax profit reached DKK 2,134m, with net profit at DKK 1,611m, and operating EPS of 2.89.

• Insurance revenue for Q3 2024 was DKK 9,786m, up from DKK 9,349m year-over-year; Q1–Q3 revenue grew 4.2% in local currencies.

• Investment result was DKK 444m, supported by positive returns across all asset classes, especially equities and fixed income.

• Expense ratio at 13.3%, slightly below guidance, reflecting tight cost control and RSA synergies.

• Solvency ratio robust at 202%, up from 195% in Q2, supporting ongoing capital repatriation.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2024 ISR guidance reaffirmed at DKK 7.2–7.6bn, with combined ratio at or below 82% and expense ratio around 13.5%.

• Underlying claims ratio expected to improve for full year 2024, with private segment contributing more as profitability actions take effect.

• Run-off gains guided at 3–5% for 2024; weather and large claims expected at DKK 800m annualized.

• External macro factors like interest rates, currency, and inflation remain key risks to outlook.

• Positive top-line growth expected in Private and Commercial, with Corporate segment focusing on profitability over volume.