Tryg (TRYG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Insurance revenue grew 3.6% in Q4 and just above 4% for the full year, mainly driven by price increases in Private and Commercial segments to counter inflation.

• Insurance service result (ISR) reached DKK 1,708 million in Q4 and DKK 7,324 million for the year, supported by improved underlying performance and lower large claims.

• Combined ratio was 82.5% in Q4, stable versus Q4 2023, with group underlying claims ratio improving by 20 bps.

• Achieved DKK 930 million in RSA Scandinavia synergies for 2024, surpassing the initial DKK 900 million target.

• Customer satisfaction closed at 87, below the 88 target, impacted by necessary price hikes amid high inflation.

Financial highlights

• Q4 pre-tax result was DKK 1,033 million; quarterly operating EPS of 1.54; ROOF 21.9% in Q4 and 34.1% for the year.

• Expense ratio improved to 13.3% for Q4 and 13.5% for the year, reflecting tight cost control and synergy realization.

• Quarterly dividend per share of DKK 1.95; DKK 2 billion buyback launched in December, with DKK 546 million repurchased by mid-January.

• Investment result for Q4 was minus DKK 265 million, impacted by asset sales and negative property returns.

• RSA Scandinavia synergies totaled DKK 930 million for 2024, exceeding initial targets.

Outlook and guidance

• Targeting ISR of DKK 8–8.4 billion and combined ratio around 81 by 2027, with ROOF between 35 and 40.

• Plans to distribute DKK 17–18 billion to shareholders by 2027, including dividends and buybacks.

• Ordinary dividend range of DKK 15–16 billion and DKK 2 billion extraordinary buyback planned for 2025–2027.

• Customer satisfaction, digital claims processing, and CO2 reduction remain strategic priorities.

• Expecting stable to slightly improving underlying performance and expense ratio towards 2027.