Tryg (TRYG) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Insurance revenue grew 3.4% year-over-year in Q3 2025, or 4% when adjusted for a one-off, mainly driven by Norway and supported by both Private and Commercial segments.

• Insurance service result reached DKK 2,181m, up 7% year-over-year on a normalized basis, reflecting strong underwriting and price adjustments.

• Combined ratio improved to 78.6%, reflecting strong profitability and tight cost control across all segments and geographies.

• Customer satisfaction reached 82%, supported by digital initiatives and process improvements, progressing toward the 2027 target of 83%.

• Profit before tax was DKK 1,980m, down from DKK 2,134m in Q3 2024, mainly due to a lower investment result.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 insurance revenue was DKK 10,175m, with insurance service result at DKK 2,181m and net investment result of DKK 177m.

• Combined ratio improved to 78.6% (Q3 2024: 79.1%), expense ratio stable at 13.3%, and underlying claims ratio improved by 30bps, mainly driven by Norway.

• Quarterly dividend of DKK 2.05 per share declared, up over 5% year-over-year.

• Solvency ratio increased to 204% at quarter-end, supported by strong operating earnings and lower real estate exposure.

• Profit after tax was DKK 1,479m (Q3 2024: DKK 1,611m); return on equity after tax was 15.1%.

Outlook and guidance

• Financial targets for 2027: combined ratio around 81%, insurance service result DKK 8.0–8.4bn, and Return on Own Funds (ROOF) between 35% and 40%.

• Expense and claims ratios expected to remain stable or improve slightly towards 2027.

• Dividend policy aims for stable and increasing ordinary dividends, with a payout ratio of 60-90% of operating earnings and total dividend and buyback target of DKK 17–18bn by 2027.

• Further property sales in Q4 to reduce asset risk and improve solvency.

• Insurance revenue growth in 2025 expected to be driven by retail portfolios, with muted growth in upper commercial.