Tryg (TRYG) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Insurance revenue grew 3.4% year-over-year in Q3 2025, or 4% when adjusted for a one-off, mainly driven by Norway and supported by both Private and Commercial segments.

• Insurance service result reached DKK 2,181m, up 7% year-over-year on a normalized basis, with a combined ratio of 78.6%.

• Customer satisfaction reached 82%, progressing toward the 2027 target of 83%, supported by digital initiatives.

• Quarterly dividend of DKK 2.05 declared; solvency ratio stands at 204%.

• Profit before tax was DKK 1,980m, down from DKK 2,134m in Q3 2024, mainly due to a lower investment result.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 insurance revenue: DKK 10,175m; insurance service result: DKK 2,181m; pre-tax result: DKK 1,980m.

• Combined ratio improved to 78.6%, with expense ratio stable at 13.3%.

• Investment return was DKK 177m, supported by both free and matched portfolios, with reduced property exposure.

• Solvency ratio: 204%, up from 199% in the previous quarter.

• Net investment result: DKK 177m (Q3 2024: DKK 526m); profit after tax: DKK 1,479m.

Outlook and guidance

• 2027 targets: insurance service result DKK 8.0–8.4bn, combined ratio around 81%, ROOF 35–40%, and ordinary dividends of DKK 15–16bn over 2025–2027.

• Expense and claims ratios expected to remain stable or improve slightly towards 2027.

• Further reduction in real estate exposure and potential extraordinary capital repatriation under review for year-end.

• Dividend policy aims for stable and increasing ordinary dividends, with a payout ratio of 60–90% of operating earnings.

• Insurance revenue growth in 2025 expected to be driven by retail portfolios, with muted growth in upper commercial.