Capital Power (CPX) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered 9.6 TWh of reliable power in Q1 2025, advancing 350 MW of flexible generation in Ontario and 300 MW of new renewables in Alberta and North Carolina.

• Announced the largest and highly accretive PJM acquisition, entering the market with over 2.2 GW of incremental capacity, diversifying the portfolio and increasing U.S. capacity to 57% pro forma.

• Maintained operational excellence, completing 43% of scheduled outage days for the year and progressing five Ontario growth projects.

• Business remains resilient with highly contracted cash flows, over 90% of PPAs with A-rated entities, and disciplined risk management.

• Strategic focus on flexible generation, data center opportunities, and continued growth in both Canada and the U.S., including SMR feasibility in Alberta.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA was CAD 367 million, up CAD 88 million year-over-year, driven by lower emission costs and record dispatch at Goreway.

• AFFO for Q1 2025 was CAD 218 million, up CAD 76 million from Q1 2024, primarily due to higher adjusted EBITDA and lower income tax expense.

• Net cash flows from operating activities were $210M, down $124M year-over-year, mainly due to working capital changes and higher interest paid.

• U.S. flexible generation adjusted EBITDA contribution increased 42% year-over-year; Canadian flexible generation up 16%.

• Canadian renewables adjusted EBITDA declined to CAD 33 million from CAD 44 million due to a 49% sell-down of wind assets.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance reaffirmed: adjusted EBITDA $1,340–1,440M, AFFO $850–950M, sustaining capex $195–225M.

• Continued investment of approximately CAD 600 million in development CapEx for 2025 to expand and modernize the portfolio.

• Focused on integrating PJM assets, maintaining a deep pipeline of M&A opportunities, and contract optimization.

• Dividend growth guidance of 6% through 2025, then 2–4% annually thereafter.

• Forward pricing for AESO projected at $51–57/MWh through 2027.