Capital Power (CPX) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record quarterly generation of 11 TWh in Q3 2024, with U.S. assets contributing 54% of total output and over 50% of adjusted EBITDA, driven by new acquisitions and strong portfolio diversification.

• Advanced 10 growth projects totaling 1.1 GW, with Genesee Repowering Units 1 and 2 commissioning on track for Q4 2024 and Genesee now fully natural gas-fueled.

• Announced partnerships with four First Nations for up to 25% equity in Halkirk 2 Wind and with Maskwacis First Nations, supporting reconciliation and profit-sharing.

• Entered the AESO connection queue for a 1.5 GW data center at Genesee, positioning for leadership in data center power supply.

• Announced a voluntary departure program to reduce Canada-based corporate workforce by at least 25% to support U.S. growth focus.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $401 million, down $13 million year-over-year, while AFFO was $315 million, up $19 million year-over-year, mainly from lower income tax expense and higher tax deductions.

• Net cash flows from operating activities were $236 million, up $244 million year-over-year; revenues and other income for Q3 2024 were $1,030 million.

• For the nine months ended September 2024, adjusted EBITDA was $1,003 million, AFFO was $635 million, and revenues and other income were $2,506 million.

• U.S. EBITDA contribution increased 72% year-over-year, while Alberta's fell 36% due to lower prices and generation.

• Dividends per common share increased 6% to $0.6519 for Q3 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 AFFO guidance remains $770–$870 million; adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $1,310–$1,410 million.

• Sustaining CapEx for 2024 is tracking within the $180–$200 million guidance range.

• Dividend growth guidance of 6% through 2025, with a long-term target of 2–4% growth after 2025.

• Genesee Repower project expected to complete combined cycle commissioning in Q4 2024, with total project cost updated to $1.55–$1.65 billion.

• No additional common share equity required in 2024 outside of the dividend reinvestment plan to fund current growth projects.