BP (BP) Trading update summary

Group performance and production

• Reported upstream production for Q4 2025 is expected to be broadly flat versus the prior quarter, with oil production & operations stable and gas & low carbon energy lower.

• Gas & low carbon energy segment realizations are expected to negatively impact results by $0.1–0.3 billion, with gas marketing and trading results expected to be average.

• Oil production & operations segment realizations are expected to have a negative impact of $0.2–0.4 billion, mainly due to price lags in the Gulf of America and UAE.

Customers & products and trading conditions

• Customers segment faces seasonally lower volumes and flat fuels margins; products segment expects stronger refining margins (~$0.1 billion), offset by higher turnaround activity and reduced capacity from a Whiting refinery fire.

• Oil trading result is expected to be weak.

• Brent crude averaged $63.73/bbl in Q4 2025, down from $69.13/bbl in Q3; US Henry Hub gas averaged $3.55/mmBtu, up from $3.07/mmBtu.

• BP RIM averaged $15.2/bbl in Q4 2025, slightly down from $15.8/bbl in Q3.

Financial impacts and guidance

• Q4 results will include post-tax impairments of $4–5 billion, mainly in transition businesses within gas & low carbon energy, excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.

• Net debt at Q4 end is expected at $22–23 billion, down from $26.1 billion in Q3, reflecting $3.5 billion in divestment proceeds.

• Underlying effective tax rate for FY25 is expected to be around 42%, up from previous guidance of 40%, due to changes in geographical profit mix.

• Full-year divestment proceeds are around $5.3 billion, exceeding previous guidance of above $4 billion.