Capital Power (CPX) Guidance summary

Opening remarks and agenda

• The call began with a formal presentation outlining 2025 guidance, led by the CEO, CFO, and Head of Canada, focusing on shareholder value, natural gas strategy, and company updates.

• The agenda included value creation, energy expansion, financial guidance, and concluding messages, followed by a Q&A session for analysts.

Guidance on key objectives

• 2025 guidance includes Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 1,340–1,440 million, AFFO of CAD 850–950 million, and sustaining capital of CAD 180–225 million, fully funded by internal cash flow and cash on hand.

• Targeted annual total shareholder return (TSR) of 12–14% over the next fiscal year.

• Priorities include maximizing value from flexible generation, recontracting assets, targeting data center customers, and expanding through U.S. acquisitions.

• Renewables growth will continue in alignment with the overall strategy, complementing flexible natural gas assets.

• Sustaining capital investment will mirror 2024, with 39 planned outages totaling 493 outage days.

Market trends and strategic opportunities

• North American power market fundamentals are strong, driven by electrification, reshoring, population growth, and surging data center demand.

• Data center power demand is projected to grow 15–20% annually, with reliability and speed to market as key requirements; most growth is not from AI.

• Existing uncontracted generation offers immediate, cost-effective solutions compared to new builds or nuclear, positioning the portfolio favorably.

• Over two-thirds of US natural gas capacity acquired by financial buyers in the last five years.

• Multiple ways to benefit from load growth, including direct contracting, market tightening, and partnerships with data centers.