Capital Power (CPX) Investor Day 2025 summary

Strategic direction and market outlook

• Focus on expanding natural gas-fired generation as the foundation for North American grid reliability and growth, with 90% of current capacity and a 25 GW pipeline of opportunities.

• Anticipates a surge in electricity demand from AI infrastructure, forecasting at least 100 GW of new U.S. demand by 2030.

• Natural gas is positioned as the lowest-cost, fastest-to-market solution, with existing assets operating at only 33% capacity factor, offering significant untapped value.

• Capital allocation prioritizes 80% to natural gas and 20% to renewables/storage, with renewables and storage as a supporting focus.

• Strategy includes acquiring and optimizing U.S. natural gas assets, leveraging operational, commercial, and trading expertise.

Financial guidance and growth targets

• Targets 8%-10% annual cash flow growth and 13%-15% total shareholder return (TSR) through 2030, with a 50% increase in U.S. capacity and 3.5 GW net additions.

• 2026 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA of $1,565–$1,765 million, AFFO of $890–$1,100 million, and sustaining capital of $290–$330 million, with 75% of 2026 cash flows secured under long-term contracts or hedges.

• Dividend growth rate reaffirmed at 2%-4% through 2030, with a payout ratio target of 30%-50% AFFO.

• Maintains investment-grade credit ratings and prudent leverage, targeting FFO/debt above 20% and debt/EBITDA in the mid-three range.

• Optimization and re-contracting of existing assets expected to deliver up to $1 billion incremental adjusted EBITDA with minimal capital investment.

Business model and operational execution

• Delivers value through integrated businesses: natural gas generation, renewables/storage, and supply/trading, all optimized for shareholder returns.

• Asset optimization is a core competency, with a proven track record of acquiring, upgrading, and integrating assets to drive efficiency, reliability, and cost reduction.

• Operates North America’s 5th largest independent gas power platform, with 11.7 GW net capacity and 91%-92% fleet availability.

• Commercial strategy leverages early engagement, longer contract tenors, and premium pricing, with significant EBITDA uplift expected from re-contracting and merchant price momentum.

• Balanced Energy Solutions targets hyperscale data centers and AI loads, with 3,000+ MW of potential data center load actively marketed.